ST. PAUL, Minn. - This election cycle is shaped by one indisputable political reality: It is a good year to be a Democrat, a bad one to be a Republican. But this fact does not automatically translate into a good strategy for Barack Obama, or a hopeless cause for John McCain.

Obama won his nomination by challenging the most effective partisan in American politics, Hillary Clinton, with a vague but appealing message of unity and hope. Then came Denver, in which Team Obama took the advice of the Democratic establishment it had defeated: Since it is a Democratic year, run as a full-blooded, Bush-baiting, McCain-bashing, class-warfare candidate. Forget about post-partisanship and the rest of that rubbish.